Myanmar’s military junta has launched a renewed offensive to reclaim Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army controls about 90% of the territory. Following Chinese diplomatic and economic pressure, several rebel groups have agreed to ceasefires, enabling the junta to regroup. The military is now preparing coordinated land, naval, and air operations, focusing on southern and central Rakhine, including the strategic Kyaukphyu area, home to major Chinese infrastructure projects. Airstrikes have intensified across Rakhine, reportedly killing civilians despite junta claims of targeting militants. Analysts say the junta’s supply lines remain fragile and its control limited to a few townships. The ongoing blockade has devastated Rakhine’s economy, causing severe shortages of food and medicine. Observers warn that a large-scale offensive could displace thousands more civilians and reshape Myanmar’s internal and regional dynamics.

Myanmar’s military junta has launched renewed offensives to reclaim Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army controls about 90 percent of the territory. The junta currently holds only three of 17 townships—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—but its grip remains weak. Backed by Chinese diplomatic and economic pressure that has weakened several rebel groups, the junta is preparing coordinated land, naval, and air assaults, particularly in southern and central Rakhine. Airstrikes have already intensified, causing civilian casualties and destruction of homes, schools, and religious sites. Analysts say the junta aims to secure Kyaukphyu, a key site for Chinese infrastructure projects, before expanding operations northward. However, logistical challenges, poor ground communication, and lack of local support may hinder progress. The ongoing blockade has devastated Rakhine’s economy, leading to food shortages, high prices, and widespread unemployment, while fears grow of mass displacement if fighting escalates further.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), part of Myanmar’s Three Brotherhood Alliance, has announced it will withdraw its members from Mogok and Momeik towns following a China-mediated ceasefire agreement with the military junta. The agreement, reached after several days of talks in Kunming, will halt advances by both sides starting next Wednesday and includes a suspension of airstrikes by the junta, though the military has not officially confirmed this. The TNLA, which controls 12 towns and has long demanded greater autonomy, has been involved with the pro-democracy resistance since the 2021 coup. The alliance has held significant areas in northeastern and western Myanmar, but the military has recently regained control of major towns. China continues to act as a central mediator in Myanmar’s conflict due to its geopolitical and economic interests, while December elections raise concerns about disrupted voting in rebel-held areas.

At least 40 people, including several children, were killed and around 80 injured when Myanmar’s military carried out an airstrike on a Buddhist festival that coincided with an anti-junta protest in Chaung-U, central Myanmar, on Monday evening. Witnesses told AFP that hundreds had gathered for the Thadingyut Full Moon Festival when participants began chanting slogans against the ruling junta. Moments later, a motorized paraglider dropped two bombs on the crowd, causing devastating explosions. Eyewitnesses described scenes of chaos and horror, with bodies torn apart and rescuers collecting human remains into the next morning. The Myanmar military, which seized power in a 2021 coup, has been battling nationwide resistance from pro-democracy forces allied with ethnic armed groups. Local media confirmed the death toll, though the junta has yet to comment. The attack comes ahead of a controversial national election scheduled for December 28, which critics call a sham to legitimize military rule.

The United Wa State Army (UWSA), one of Myanmar’s largest ethnic armed groups, has announced it will stop providing military and financial support to anti-junta forces. Analysts say the decision follows nearly two years of Chinese financial pressure, including frozen assets and threats to cut off essential supplies. The move may weaken northern resistance groups and shift the balance of power in Myanmar’s civil conflict, strengthening Beijing’s strategic influence while highlighting the UWSA’s reluctant compliance under economic coercion.

A new report by Conflict Armament Research reveals Myanmar’s military junta is using drones equipped with European-developed, Chinese-made anti-jamming technology to target rebel groups and civilians. The drones, found in conflict zones like Kayah State, contain advanced navigation systems. Rights groups are calling for stronger, more consistent EU sanctions, saying current restrictions are insufficient. Despite embargoes since the 1990s, components still reach Myanmar via indirect routes. No unethical conduct was found from suppliers, but calls grow to cut off the junta's access to money, weapons, and fuel.

Myanmar’s military has formally handed power to a civilian interim government ahead of planned national elections in December. However, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing will continue to serve as acting president. The military has also repealed martial law decrees. Government spokesperson Zaw Min Tun said the next six months will be used to prepare for the elections. Western governments have already dismissed the upcoming election as a sham.

Myanmar’s military junta has officially lifted the state of emergency after nearly three and a half years, marking an end to the continuous rule imposed since the 2021 coup. The decision, announced on Thursday by General Min Aung Hlaing, comes as preparations begin for upcoming parliamentary elections. The junta spokesperson confirmed the move aims to foster a multiparty democratic culture. The last election in 2020 was disputed by the military, which led to the coup and emergency declaration in November 2021.

Myanmar’s military junta has enacted a new law making criticism or protest against its planned elections a criminal offense. The law punishes individuals with up to 7 years in prison and organizations with up to 10 years. Voter intimidation or ballot disruption can lead to 20 years in jail, while election-related violence may result in the death penalty. The junta, which seized power in 2021, plans to hold elections in late 2025 or early 2026, amid ongoing suppression of opposition voices.

Human Rights Watch reports that Myanmar’s Arakan Army has intensified persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State. Since November 2023, the armed group has imposed strict movement restrictions, looted homes, forced labor, detained and tortured villagers, and enforced forced recruitment. Despite promises of fair governance, Rohingyas face increased violence similar to the Myanmar military. Food shortages and land seizures worsen conditions. Over 120,000 new Rohingya refugees arrived in Bangladesh since May 2024. HRW urges the UN and international community to ensure safe, dignified repatriation.

Myanmar’s military junta plans a national election amid ongoing civil war, raising fears of increased violence rather than peace. China plays a key role, providing technical support and political training to military-backed parties and the election commission. This involvement aims to secure China’s strategic interests in Myanmar, especially the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Major opposition parties are excluded, and the election is widely seen as an attempt to legitimize military rule. Regional neighbors face diplomatic pressure to accept the results, risking ASEAN unity.

Following attacks by the Karen National Liberation Army on military bases in Myanmar’s Kayin State, over 500 individuals — including around 100 junta soldiers and 467 civilians — fled into neighboring Thailand on Saturday. Some military personnel reportedly surrendered, while others escaped as resistance forces overwhelmed government troops. The Thai military has provided medical and humanitarian assistance to the refugees and has tightened border security. Myanmar remains embroiled in a bloody civil conflict following the 2021 military coup.

At least 23 people, including four children, were killed in an airstrike by Myanmar’s military on a Buddhist monastery in Lin Ta Lu village, Sagaing region. The attack occurred around 1:00 AM on Saturday, where over 150 displaced civilians had taken shelter. More than 30 people were injured, many critically, and the death toll is expected to rise. The military has not issued a statement yet. The region is known as a resistance stronghold, and such attacks have intensified recently.

In a joint statement following the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, member states reaffirmed their support for Myanmar’s efforts to establish peace, stability, and the rule of law in Rakhine State. The statement emphasized the importance of the safe, dignified, and voluntary repatriation of displaced persons and welcomed ongoing bilateral efforts between Myanmar and Bangladesh.

ASEAN also expressed its continued commitment to assisting in the repatriation process through proposed project implementations and called on the Secretary-General to identify areas where the bloc can play a more active role.

Since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, anti-junta fighters have reportedly downed 13 military aircraft worth approximately $170 million. The Kachin Independence Army and allies shot down five planes over Kachin and northern Shan States. The Karenni resistance claimed four more, including three fighter jets and two helicopters across Sagaing, Chin, and Karen regions. Additional reports from defectors mention seven more damaged or destroyed aircraft over multiple regions. The junta attributes some losses to mechanical failure and weather. Independent verification remains unavailable.